Impact of Government Shutdown
Co Authored by Omar Franco
The impact of the federal government shutdown, which began October 1, 2013, will be deeply felt by importers and exporters alike. Most government services deemed “essential” by the federal agencies will continue, but “non-essential” services will be discontinued until funding is restored.
This early on, there is no obvious resolution of the budget dispute to tie the FY-2014 government funding to Affordable Care Act (ACA) reforms. Both the House and Senate are entrenched in their positions and they are not scheduled to negotiate any time soon. One side will have to capitulate or bipartisan negotiations will have to lead to a resolution. We feel that negotiations will probably not occur this week as both sides need to assess how the markets and voters will respond to the federal government shutdown. Depending on the public response, we will see movement by one side, probably by Republicans, if the reaction is seen as damaging. As of today, the Dow was up, so the market reaction has been subdued. The reaction from voters is still unknown, but if it is subdued as well, the shutdown will be prolonged. We anticipate the shutdown will last through this week at a minimum.
Some lawmakers are considering broadening the debate by including the debt ceiling. Pressure from resolving the government shutdown could also resolve the debt ceiling issue. The longer the shutdown continues, the more likely the resolution will be tied to the debt ceiling. We […]